Copenhagen - the final hours

There is approximately 24 hours left before the official ending of the Copenhagen summit. After nearly two weeks of reportedly tortured negotiations, there appears to be some glimmers of hope that some kind of an agreement will be hammered out.

There are four key areas to the negotiations: 1: Arriving at an emission target formula (very difficult). 2: Solidifying a financial arrangement to assist developing countries - mainly in Africa (seemingly a solution of $100b per annum starting in 2020 has been agreed upon). 3: Developing some methodology for oversight to ensure that everyone is living up to the agreement (extremely complex). 4: Dividing up responsibility among the international community to make necessary sacrifices.

From a Canadian perspective, Prime Minister Harper made the decision to forgo his alloted time to address the plenary session today. The Canadian government has taken a battering during the talks, and I have little idea what the PMO has to gain by taking the avoidance tact. Yes, the Canadian position in stedfast defense of the Tar Sands has been hugely unpopular, but to purposefully remove oneself from the process is perplexing and damaging to Canada's international stature.

Much progress has been made in figuring out a formula to assist developing nations, but the tricky part still appears to be finding reasonable emission targets, and a formula for oversight (trust, but verify). President Obama is scheduled to arrive in Copenhagen some time tomorrow - although even that is still up in the air.

Hillary Clinton, who has entered negotiations, has stated that Obama will be coming. I believe that if Obama does go to Copenhagen that some kind of an agreement will be finalized. The Administration surely is apprehensive about the prospect of having Obama enter negotiations, and come out empty-handed. If there's a stigma that's been forming over Obama, it's been his inability to close deals. Failure in Copenhagen would only add to that persona of a leader that speaks big, but can't deliver.

It will be an interesting 24 hours.