Oh to Have Been a Fly on that Wall ...

The New York Times tonight has an inside scoop on last minute wheeling and dealing at Copenhagen. Seems as though Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao tried to pull a fast one by usurping a scheduled meeting between himself, President Obama, Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silvia of Brazil and Manmohan Singh, Prime Minster of India. The five leaders represented the five key players at the talks, and the path towards an agreement was reportedly being hampered by Chinese foot-dragging.

Obama officials were horrified to discover that President Wen started the meeting early, without tipping off Obama. The President was rushed to the meeting room, where Obama, and Hillary Clinton stormed into the room.

What happened after that is anyone's guess, but Obama was not particularly pleased with Mr. Wen. Oh, to have been there.

Canada? Who knows? One might assume that the delegation had already packed up and waiting for a plane to head back home.

The Deal is Off?

Not unexpectedly, overtime talks have been going on through Friday night/Saturday morning in Copenhagen. Apparently there is great dissatisfaction with the draft of the "preliminary" deal that was struck on Friday evening.

The whole thing could just collapse into nothing, which given the overwhelming negative reaction to the very weak targets contained in the preliminary deal, might not be a bad thing.

A Deal is Struck, So What?

As expected, they hammered out an agreement today - although the devil being the details, the key agreement doesn't amount to very much. A target to cap the rise of global temperatures by no more than 2 degrees Celsius. Given that the general scientific consensus is that emissions must be reduced, not curtailed, to avoid catastrophe, the Copenhagen Protocol, or whatever it's called, will probably be deemed a failure.

Lots of blame to go around - foot dragging by China, passive participation by the United States. It appears that only the developing countries from Africa were willing to step up and offer significant compromises.

Obama? He, and others might end up having something to sign, but perception might dictate that what he was able to deliver for climate change might as falling far short of expectations.

Copenhagen - the final hours

There is approximately 24 hours left before the official ending of the Copenhagen summit. After nearly two weeks of reportedly tortured negotiations, there appears to be some glimmers of hope that some kind of an agreement will be hammered out.

There are four key areas to the negotiations: 1: Arriving at an emission target formula (very difficult). 2: Solidifying a financial arrangement to assist developing countries - mainly in Africa (seemingly a solution of $100b per annum starting in 2020 has been agreed upon). 3: Developing some methodology for oversight to ensure that everyone is living up to the agreement (extremely complex). 4: Dividing up responsibility among the international community to make necessary sacrifices.

From a Canadian perspective, Prime Minister Harper made the decision to forgo his alloted time to address the plenary session today. The Canadian government has taken a battering during the talks, and I have little idea what the PMO has to gain by taking the avoidance tact. Yes, the Canadian position in stedfast defense of the Tar Sands has been hugely unpopular, but to purposefully remove oneself from the process is perplexing and damaging to Canada's international stature.

Much progress has been made in figuring out a formula to assist developing nations, but the tricky part still appears to be finding reasonable emission targets, and a formula for oversight (trust, but verify). President Obama is scheduled to arrive in Copenhagen some time tomorrow - although even that is still up in the air.

Hillary Clinton, who has entered negotiations, has stated that Obama will be coming. I believe that if Obama does go to Copenhagen that some kind of an agreement will be finalized. The Administration surely is apprehensive about the prospect of having Obama enter negotiations, and come out empty-handed. If there's a stigma that's been forming over Obama, it's been his inability to close deals. Failure in Copenhagen would only add to that persona of a leader that speaks big, but can't deliver.

It will be an interesting 24 hours.

Bloodbath today at the Washington Times

The Times lays off 40% of its staff in one day. A momentous cut by just about any standards. Interestingly, they're going to be giving away printed copies to local government offices next year - I assume in a vain attempt to maintain presence within the halls of power. Also appears that they will be charging for digital content.

This is a publication on the cusp within an industry steeped with trouble. Even with the deep pockets of the Times' owners, you have to wonder how many months are left before the doors are locked forever.

The Recreational Marilyn?

Supposed vintage video of Ms. Monroe lighting one up. Of mild historical interest. I'm inclined to believe it's just an ordinary cigarette, but who knows?

The Afghan Announcement

The major details known well in advance including the addition of 30,000 troops, President's Obama's Afghanistan speech was neo-realistic. It's an inherited conundrum with the path of lesser evil being taken with the decision to deploy (to simply abandon the country could create catastrophic instability).

Since the speech I've been struck by how many"experts", bloggers included, have reacted to the speech with a high degree of skepticism. There were plenty of critics that were once high on board with not only the original decision to invade Afghanistan, but also Iraq. Eh - go figure?

Leaving the Fold

One of the stalwarts finally turns in his membership card - an inevitability I suppose.